Build a moat against founder self-overestimation
“You’re about to make a decision that could screw up your business — and you’re not even aware of it.”
We break your decision down into assumptions, risks, and counter-hypotheses — before it becomes reality.
You come up with a real decision.
You will obtain a structured decision report.
No tool. No demo. Only analysis.
Most founders only realize far too late that their reasoning failed.
This is what decisions look like today:
You only learn when it’s already too late.
UNCOMFORTABLE TRUTH
The problem is not your team — it’s how decisions are structured.
Decisions are based on narratives, not explicit assumptions.
Unknown assumptions remain unchallenged.
Failure is recognized only after it becomes expensive.
CATEGORY
Decision Infrastructure for Human Capital
We don’t build hiring tools.
We don’t give scores.
We don’t automate decisions.
We evaluate decisions.
DECISION INFRASTRUCTURE FOR HUMAN CAPITAL
Our analysis shows where your reasoning may break — and why.
This is what a decision should look like:
Assumptions are explicit.
Assumptions are being challenged.
CRITICAL MOMENT
The first irreversible decisions happen here:
First Engineering Lead
Architecture
Team Structure
RECURRING THINKING ERRORS
These patterns appear consistently – no matter who the founder is.
Overconfidence in architecture projections
Underweighting organizational scaling
Narrative justification instead of hypothesis testing
Missing counter-argument simulation
These patterns repeat.
They can be surfaced.
IRREVERSIBLE DECISION
If your reasoning fails — do you want to see where before or after you commit?
Because you are making an irreversible decision — without knowing where it will fail.
DECISION INTELLIGENCE REPORT
You come up with a real decision.
We challenge that decision.
No pitch
No sales deck
Only analysis
CUSTOMER PROFILE
Who this is for:
Founders transitioning from Seed to Series A
Founders facing a crucial decision
CONCLUSION
The problem is not your team.
The problem is unverified reasoning.
We make the structure visible.
Decision Infrastructure for founders who refuse to let ego and bias decide the future of their company.
© 2026. All rights reserved.
How it Works
Structured Decision Reports that force clarity on irreversible decisions
PHASE 1
Short Intake (8 – 10 min)
You answer questions about the decision you have to make.
We review how robust your reasoning is and where your biggest blind spots are.
If relevant, you will get access to the Decision Diagnostic.
PHASE 2
Decision Diagnostic (12 - 15 min)
You answer more specific questions about the role, your assumptions, and the candidates.
We build a structured Decision Report (6–8 pages) that makes every major assumption explicit, testable, and comparable.
Clear exposure of confirmation bias, ego risks, culture misfits, and hidden downsides.
You decide with far higher clarity. We don’t decide for you — we make sure you don’t fool yourself.
Why DecideMoat
Most founders believe they’re good at judging talent. Reality shows otherwise when the wrong Engineering Lead quietly burns 6–18 months of momentum.
We don’t replace your judgment. We make it brutally testable.
One decision at a time. Starting with the highest-leverage hire in early-stage companies.
Terms & Conditions
Terms and Conditions
Effective Date: March 1, 2026
Decernfra
Marcus Orbé
Moskovska 29, 1000 Sofia, Bulgaria
E-Mail: m (AD) decernfra (DOT) com
1. Scope
(1) These Terms & Conditions (“Terms”) apply to all agreements between Decernfra (“Provider”) and business customers (“Client”).
(2) These Terms apply exclusively. Any conflicting or deviating terms of the Client are rejected.
(3) The Provider offers services exclusively to businesses. No services are offered to consumers.
2. Nature of Services
(1) The Provider delivers structured analytical outputs (“Decision Reports”) related to business decisions.
(2) The service includes:
- structuring decision scenarios
- identifying assumptions and risks
- outlining counter-hypotheses
- preparing findings in written form
(3) The Provider does not provide recommendations, advice, or instructions of any kind.
(4) The services:
- do not constitute consulting
- do not constitute legal, tax, financial, or business advice
- are purely analytical in nature
3. No Reliance
(1) The Client acknowledges that the Decision Report is not a basis for decision-making.
(2) The Client agrees:
- not to rely on the Decision Report for decisions
- that all decisions are made independently and at their own risk
(3) The Provider assumes no responsibility whatsoever for any decisions made by the Client.
4. Contract Formation
(1) Website content does not constitute a binding offer.
(2) The Client submits a request (e.g. via Tally or other intake tools).
(3) A contract is only formed upon:
- explicit acceptance by the Provider, or
- issuance and acceptance of an individual offer
(4) The Provider is under no obligation to accept any request.
5. Scope of Performance
(1) The service includes delivery of a Decision Report (e.g., PDF) and optionally a call.
(2) The service is based entirely on information provided by the Client.
(3) The Provider performs services on a best-effort basis.
(4) No specific result, outcome, or quality level is owed.
(5) The Provider retains full discretion regarding structure, depth, and methodology.
6. Client Responsibilities
(1) The Client must provide complete and accurate information.
(2) The Provider has no obligation to verify such information.
(3) Any consequences arising from inaccurate or incomplete data are solely the Client’s responsibility.
7. Use of Artificial Intelligence
(1) The Provider uses third-party AI systems including but not limited to OpenAI, Grok, Gemini and Claude.
(2) The Client acknowledges:
- such systems may process data outside their jurisdiction
- outputs may contain errors, inconsistencies, or uncertainties
(3) The Provider does not guarantee accuracy, completeness, or reliability.
8. Fees and Payment
(1) All fees are payable in advance and are a condition for service delivery.
(2) No work will begin before full payment is received.
(3) Strict No Refund Policy:
- all payments are final
- no cancellations after project initiation
- no chargebacks or payment disputes are permitted
(4) EU B2B Reverse Charge applies where applicable (Art. 44, 196 VAT Directive).
(5) The Client must provide a valid VAT ID where required.
(6) All prices are net of VAT unless stated otherwise.
9. Intellectual Property
(1) The Client receives a non-exclusive, non-transferable, limited license to use the Decision Report for internal purposes only.
(2) The Client may not reproduce, distribute or publish without prior written consent.
(3) All rights to methodologies, frameworks and analytical systems remain exclusively with the Provider.
(4) The Provider may:
- reuse knowledge, insights, and structures
- provide similar services to competitors
- commercialize its frameworks without restriction
10. Data Usage
(1) The Provider may use data in anonymized form for service improvement, pattern recognition
and statistical analysis.
(2) No personal or identifiable data will be disclosed.
11. Confidentiality
(1) The Provider agrees to treat all Client information confidentially.
(2) This does not apply to anonymized data under Section 10.
12. Liability
(1) The Provider’s liability is fully excluded, except in cases of intentional misconduct.
(2) In all other cases:
- no liability for negligence
- no liability for indirect or consequential damages
- no liability for loss of profit
- no liability for business decisions
(3) If liability cannot be excluded:
it is limited to a maximum of the amount paid for the service
13. Indemnification
The Client agrees to indemnify and hold harmless the Provider against any claims, damages, or losses arising from:
- use of the Decision Report
- decisions made by the Client
- third-party claims
14. Dispute Resolution (Arbitration)
(1) Any dispute shall be resolved exclusively through binding arbitration.
(2) Arbitration shall be conducted under internationally recognized rules (e.g., ICC or equivalent).
(3) The seat of arbitration shall be determined by the Provider.
(4) Court proceedings are excluded to the maximum extent permitted by law.
15. Governing Law
(1) For EU Clients: German law applies.
(2) For non-EU Clients: international commercial law principles apply.
The English version of these Terms shall prevail in case of conflict.
16. Final Provisions
(1) If any provision is invalid, the remainder remains unaffected.
(2) No oral agreements exist.
(3) Amendments must be made in writing.
Privacy Policy
Privacy Policy
Controller / Legal Notice
Decernfra
Marcus Orbé
Moskovska 29, 1000 Sofia, Bulgaria
E-Mail: m (AD) decernfra (DOT) com
Positioning & Scope
This website is directed primarily at businesses (B2B), including founders, startups, and companies.
We process personal data only to the extent necessary to operate this website, initiate and manage business relationships. The core purpose of our processing is not website usage, but the analysis and structuring of business decisions.
Data Flow (End-to-End Transparency)
Our data processing follows a structured logic:
1. Input: Data is collected via external forms (e.g. Tally), including name, email address, phone number
business context
2. Structuring: Data is processed internally using Airtable (data structuring), Google Workspace / Google Docs (analysis & documentation)
3. Analysis: We use analytical systems to structure assumptions, generate counter-hypotheses and detect inconsistencies. Artificial intelligence may support this process.
Important: No autonomous decisions are made. No personal data is submitted to AI systems. Only abstracted or non-identifiable data is used.
4. Output: Results are delivered as structured reports (e.g. PDF) and may be sent via email.
Hosting & Server Log Files
When accessing this website, technical data is automatically collected: IP address, browser type and version, operating system and timestamp. This data is necessary for: website delivery and system security. Hosting is provided by All-Inkl (Germany).
Legal basis: legitimate interest (Art. 6(1)(f) GDPR)
Cookies
This website does not use tracking, does not use analytics, does not use marketing pixels and does not perform profiling. Only technically necessary cookies are used. Therefore, no cookie banner is required.
Legal basis:
§25(2) TDDDG
Art. 6(1)(f) GDPR
Contact & Inquiry Processing
If you submit data via forms (e.g. Tally), your data is processed to handle your request and evaluate potential collaboration.
Legal basis: Art. 6(1)(b) GDPR
Data is collected directly by the respective provider.
Scheduling
For scheduling, we use external services (e.g. Calendly), accessed via link.
If you use these services, data is processed directly by the provider.
Legal basis: Art. 6(1)(b) GDPR
Internal Processing Systems
To deliver our services, we use structured systems such as: Airtable
and Google Workspace. These are used exclusively for internal processing and documentation.
Access is strictly limited to the controller.
Use of Artificial Intelligence
Artificial intelligence is used exclusively to improve analytical quality, structure decision logic and identify biases and inconsistencies. AI systems do not make autonomous decisions and do not replace human judgment. No personal data is transferred to AI systems.
Legal basis:
Art. 6(1)(b) GDPR
Art. 6(1)(f) GDPR
International Data Transfers
Some of the service providers used may process data outside the European Union, particularly in the United States.
Where applicable, data transfers are safeguarded by:
- Participation in the EU–US Data Privacy Framework (DPF)
- Standard Contractual Clauses (SCCs)
- Selection of established and reliable providers
Payments (Stripe)
Payments may be processed via Stripe.
If used, payment data is processed directly by Stripe as an independent controller.
Legal basis: Art. 6(1)(b) GDPR
Data Retention
Personal data is stored only as long as necessary to fulfill the respective purpose.
No Data Selling / No Tracking Commitment
We explicitly state:
- We do not sell personal data
- We do not use tracking technologies
- We do not monetize user behavior
Your Rights
You have the right to:
- Access your data (Art. 15 GDPR)
- Rectification (Art. 16 GDPR)
- Erasure (Art. 17 GDPR)
- Restriction of processing (Art. 18 GDPR)
- Data portability (Art. 20 GDPR)
- Objection (Art. 21 GDPR)
Right to Lodge a Complaint
You have the right to lodge a complaint with a supervisory authority.
Security
This website uses SSL/TLS encryption (HTTPS).
Changes
This privacy policy may be updated.
Last updated: March 2026